A Reality Check for Predictive ModelsMy actuarial career began with the naive belief that anything could be mathematically modeled, that model-based prediction was only...
Games of ChanceI worked for a Property & Casualty insurer in Seattle. It was my first year out of college. My desk covered with exam problems. My stress...
Riskmatician Commander's Intent (RCI) The chief riskmatician of any corporation must have a clear Commander’s Intent (CI) - A simple statement that's used firm-wide to guide...
Fundamental Principle 3 for RiskmaticiansThe Law of One Price states that any two securities with identical future payoffs, no matter how the future unfolds, should have...